Istat also corrects its growth forecasts for our country upwards, aligning itself with the estimate included by the government in the update note to the Economic and Financial Document. According to the statistics institute, our country’s GDP will grow by 1.5% this year and 1.4% in 2018. A clear improvement compared to what was written in the latest publication on annual growth in May, when GDP was expected to increase by only 1% this year. If confirmed it would therefore be the highest growth rate since 2010.
The statistical institute does not go any further, even if the data relating to the third quarter indicated an acquired growth, i.e. the level that would be reached if the last quarter of the year were at zero growth, of 1, 5%, suggesting – as also suggested by Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni – that in the end Italy’s gross domestic product could rise in 2017 even beyond the estimates indicated today. Gentiloni himself seized on the new Istat publication to underline: “We are finally in a context in which the economy has started to grow again. And it is not growth without work”. From the inauguration of the Gdf study year he remarked: “It is very important that Istat certifies that growth corresponds to a decline in unemployment”. An enthusiasm dampened to tell the truth by the findings published again today by Istat, according to which this year “the unemployment rate is expected to decrease moderately”, from 11.7% to 11.2%, even if it will remain “still distant from that of the euro area average”. “The improvement in the labor market is estimated to extend to 2018 as well”, it is underlined. In fact, “the reduction in unemployment (10.9%) will continue”, estimates the Institute.
Returning to the individual components of growth, household spending in 2017 “is expected to slow down slightly”, going from +1.5% last year to +1.4%, “in the face of a decrease in the power of ‘purchase”, notes Istat. “The growth in spending is expected to continue with a similar intensity in 2018 (+1.3%)”, writes the Institute. Despite the slowing trend, it was precisely family consumption that pushed the GDP estimates for 2017 upwards, the Institute itself acknowledges.
Article from “La Repubblica”
