logo
Italy elections 2018: who is running and why it matters
  • 31 January, 2018

The rules, contenders and possible outcomes of a vote pivotal to the fate of the EU

Italians head to the polls on March 4 in the next big EU election that could help determine the fate of the bloc.

Italy is one of the founding members of the EU and the third-largest economy in the eurozone. But in recent years Euroscepticism has been on the rise, as discontent about a deep recession, weak recovery and the migration crisis on the country’s southern shores grows.

Here the FT looks at the rules, the main contenders and the possible outcomes of this pivotal vote.

The electoral system

Italy’s electoral system is not enshrined in the constitution, and parliament has made three big changes to the rules over the past 25 years. The most recent was in 2017, when lawmakers agreed on the current “Rosatellum” system — named after Ettore Rosato, an MP from the ruling centre-left Democratic Party, who authored the law.

This means 61 per cent of the seats — 386 in the lower house and 193 in the upper house — will be awarded by national proportional representation. Some 37 per cent — 232 in the lower house and 116 in the upper house — will be elected in single-member constituencies under a first-past-the-post system. Italians living abroad will elect 2 per cent — 12 seats in the lower house and six in the upper house.

Parties must win 3 per cent of the national vote to gain a share of the proportional seats, a measure designed to reduce fragmentation. If they are allied to a larger coalition partner, votes for parties that earn between 1 and 3 per cent are transferred to the stronger party.

The Rosatellum was the product of a quick compromise in parliament last year. But because of the first-past-the-post component it seemed tailor-made to hurt the anti-establishment Five Star Movement. Five Star is against forming coalitions and lacks both a deep penetration at local level and experienced candidates.

The centre-right opposition stands to benefit, since it has managed to form a coalition. This includes the Forza Italia party led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, the anti-euro Northern League and the rightwing Brothers of Italy. The Northern League, in particular, has strong local roots in the prosperous north.

With votes nearly evenly split among three groups — the centre-right, centre-left and Five-Star — the result could be a hung parliament. But political scientists say that if one of the groups reaches more than 40 per cent of the votes in the proportional system, it could also gain more than 65 per cent of the seats in the first-past-the-post component and, conceivably, a majority in parliament. That is the big prize.

The parties

Democratic Party

The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) forms the backbone of the governing coalition led by Paolo Gentiloni, prime minister. Matteo Renzi, the former prime minister, was re-elected as the party’s leader under a reformist agenda in April 2017.

When he became prime minister in 2014, Mr Renzi was able to reinvigorate the PD on the back of his charisma and vigour. But polls now show it trailing the centre-right coalition and Five Star.

PD traditionally supports pro-European policies and the social integration of immigrants. It has been in power since 2013, a period largely associated with economic recovery and employment expansion, though many Italians have not felt the benefits. It is stronger in the centre of the country and among older people and those with a higher education.

Five Star Movement

Five Star (M5S) first took part in a general election in 2013, when it won 25 per cent of the vote and established itself as key power in Italian politics. It was created by comedian Beppe Grillo and the late internet consultant Gianroberto Casaleggio — who has been succeeded by his son Davide Casaleggio — with a platform involving direct democracy, the green economy and a fight against corruption. Its prime ministerial candidate is Luigi Di Maio.

The movement has since been in the spotlight because of internal divisions, lack of experience and its mismanagement in Rome, where it holds the mayorship.

Forza Italia

Mr Berlusconi’s centre-right party, Forza Italia (FI) has dominated the country’s politics since its entry on to the scene in 1994, when the media mogul first ran for office. Even when it was in opposition — between 1996 and 2001 and again between 2006 and 2008 — it was the main conservative political force in Italy.

The height of the party’s power was in 2008, when Mr Berlusconi was re-elected as prime minister for a third time. But its support dropped to 15 per cent after Mr Berlusconi was forced to resign as prime minister in November 2011 over personal legal and sex scandals and the mismanagement of Italy’s debt crisis.

Although Mr Berlusconi, who is now 81 years old, is banned from public office because of a tax fraud conviction, he is nonetheless leading his party’s campaign and may be a key powerbroker after the vote.

The centre-right’s resurgence was apparent in municipal and regional elections in 2017, when it captured control of the city of Genoa and the governorship of Sicily.

Northern League

The Northern League (LN) is a Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant party based in the country’s north. Although its main cause used to be fiscal federalism — and even secession — from Rome, it has now veered towards a more traditional hard-right nationalist agenda along the lines of France’s National Front.

Its support in the opinion polls has increased in the past three years on the back of rising anti-immigration sentiment following the Italian migration crisis. It was a marginal part of the centre-right coalition in the last general election but it can now boost a similar support base to Forza Italia.

Free and Equal

After Mr Renzi and the PD lost a constitutional referendum in 2016, a group of leftwing dissidents — including veterans such as Massimo D’Alema and Pier Luigi Bersani — defected and formed a new political force. This evolved into Free and Equal (LeU), led by former anti-Mafia prosecutor and Senate president Pietro Grasso.

Its goal is to capture the votes of disillusioned leftwing Italians who believe the PD is too centrist and dislike Mr Renzi’s leadership style. But by running separately from the PD, the party is opening itself up to the criticism that it is paving the way for a centre-right or Five Star victory.

Brothers of Italy

Brothers of Italy (FdI) is a nationalist-conservative party led by Giorgia Meloni, the Rome native and party leader who served as a minister in a previous Berlusconi-led government.

The name of the party mirrors that of Italy’s national anthem and its manifesto is laden with nativist policies against immigration and globalisation.

Brothers of Italy is a descendant of the Italian Social Movement, which inherited the role of the defunct Italian fascist party in postwar Italy.

Potential outcomes

According to the latest seat allocation projections, no party or coalition will be achieve a majority — at least 316 seats. Among the possible coalitions, based on current polling, are:

A grand coalition

Centre-left and centre-right.

This would be the broadest possible grand coalition, which could involve a technocratic government directed by Sergio Mattarella, the president, in the interests of maintaining stability. But in reality any grand coalition is likely to be much narrower, with parts of the centre-right — especially the Northern League and Brothers of Italy — and the centre-left — particularly leftwing factions of the PD — splintering off.

This has led many political scientists to question whether the numbers will add up for a workable grand coalition after the vote.

An anti-euro government

Five Star Movement, Northern League and Brothers of Italy.

The most destabilising scenario for the EU would be a strong performance by Five Star, with the movement then seeking partners to form a government based on questioning the euro, reviewing Nato membership and adopting a hardline stance on immigration. But there are a wide range of views on each of these subjects even within the anti-establishment parties, so it is far from clear they could find common ground.

A fudge

The most likely outcome is a very weak and unstable grand coalition — or even a minority government — with lawmakers switching sides and allegiances based on individual votes in parliament.

New elections

If efforts to form a government fail repeatedly after the vote, Mr Mattarella may be forced to call new elections, prolonging the country’s political uncertainty — a scenario close to that experienced in Spain in recent years.

Methodology

At each point in time, the FT poll-of-polls takes the average of all polls published within the last month. The average of their results is weighted to give more recent polls greater influence on the net score.

Article from the 'Financial Times'

Post a comment

To post a comment you must be registered. If you are already registered you can login.

Register

Tick this box to indicate that you have read and understood the terms and condition of the Privacy Policy

Privacy Policy

BACKGROUND:

User understands that your privacy is important to you and that you care about how your personal data is used and shared online. We respect and value the privacy of everyone who visits this website, www.well-tax.com (“Our Site”) and will only collect and use personal data in ways that are described here, and in a manner that is consistent with Our obligations and your rights under the law.

Please read this Privacy Policy carefully and ensure that you understand it. Your acceptance of Our Privacy Policy is deemed to occur upon your first use of Our Site. If you do not accept and agree with this Privacy Policy, you must stop using Our Site immediately.

1. Definitions and Interpretation

In this Policy, the following terms shall have the following meanings:

“personal data”

means any and all data that relates to an identifiable person who can be directly or indirectly identified from that data. In this case, it means personal data that you give to Us via Our Site. This definition shall, where applicable, incorporate the definitions provided in the EU Regulation 2016/679 – the General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”); and

“We/Us/Our”

means WellTax Limited, a limited company registered in England and Wales under company number 09572130 whose registered address is 402a City Gate House, 246-250 Romford Road, London E7 9HZ.

2. Information About Us

• Our Site is owned and operated by WellTax Limited, a limited company registered in England and Wales under company number 09572130 whose registered address is 402a City Gate House, 246-250 Romford Road, London E7 9HZ.

• Our VAT number is GB 221 1287 52.

• Our Data Protection Officer is WellTax Limited and can be contacted by email at info@well-tax.com, by telephone on +44 (0) 20 3581 1717, or by post at https://well-tax.com/contact.

• We are regulated by the ICO (Information Commissioner’s Office, https://ico.org.uk/).

3. What Does This Policy Cover?

This Privacy Policy applies only to your use of Our Site. Our Site may contain links to other websites. Please note that We have no control over how your data is collected, stored, or used by other websites and We advise you to check the privacy policies of any such websites before providing any data to them.

4. Your Rights

• As a data subject, you have the following rights under the GDPR, which this Policy and Our use of personal data have been designed to uphold:

• The right to be informed about Our collection and use of personal data;

• The right of access to the personal data We hold about you (see section 12);

• The right to rectification if any personal data We hold about you is inaccurate or incomplete (please contact Us using the details in section 13);

• The right to be forgotten – i.e. the right to ask Us to delete any personal data We hold about you (We only hold your personal data for a limited time, as explained in section 6 but if you would like Us to delete it sooner, please contact Us using the details in section 13);

• The right to restrict (i.e. prevent) the processing of your personal data;

• The right to data portability (obtaining a copy of your personal data to re-use with another service or organisation);

• The right to object to Us using your personal data for particular purposes; and

• Rights with respect to automated decision making and profiling.

• If you have any cause for complaint about Our use of your personal data, please contact Us using the details provided in section 13 and We will do Our best to solve the problem for you. If We are unable to help, you also have the right to lodge a complaint with the UK’s supervisory authority, the Information Commissioner’s Office.

• For further information about your rights, please contact the Information Commissioner’s Office or your local Citizens Advice Bureau.

5. What Data Do We Collect?

Depending upon your use of Our Site, We may collect some or all of the following personal data:

• name;

• date of birth;

• gender;

• business/company name;

• job title;

• profession and studies;

• contact information such as email addresses and telephone numbers;

• demographic information such as post code, preferences, and interests;

• IP address;

• web browser type and version;

• operating system;

• a list of URLs starting with a referring site, your activity on Our Site, and the site you exit to;

6. How Do We Use Your Data?

• All personal data is processed and stored securely, for no longer than is necessary in light of the reason(s) for which it was first collected. We will comply with Our obligations and safeguard your rights under the GDPR at all times. For more details on security see section 7, below.

• Our use of your personal data will always have a lawful basis, either because it is necessary for Our performance of a contract with you, because you have consented to Our use of your personal data (e.g. by subscribing to emails), or because it is in Our legitimate interests. Specifically, We may use your data for the following purposes:

• Supplying Our services to you (please note that We require your personal data in order to enter into a contract with you);

• Personalising and tailoring Our services for you;

• Replying to emails from you;

• Supplying you with emails that you have opted into (you may unsubscribe or opt-out at any time by sending an email to info@well-tax.com specifying that you no longer want us to keep your data;

• Market research;

• With your permission and/or where permitted by law, We may also use your data for marketing purposes which may include contacting you by email, telephone, text message, and post with information, news, and offers on Our services. We will not, however, send you any unsolicited marketing or spam and will take all reasonable steps to ensure that We fully protect your rights and comply with Our obligations under GDPR and the Privacy and Electronic Communications (EC Directive) Regulations 2003.

• You have the right to withdraw your consent to Us using your personal data at any time, and to request that We delete it.

• We do not keep your personal data for any longer than is necessary in light of the reason(s) for which it was first collected. Data will therefore be retained for the following periods (or its retention will be determined on the following bases):

• In the “Newsletter Section” data will be kept for an unlimited period, however, an unsubscribe option will be available for the individual that would like to opt out.

• In the “Post a Comment Section” data will be kept for an unlimited period, however, the individual could always unsubscribe by sending an email to info@well-tax.com.

• In the “Contact Us”, “Get in Touch” and “Careers” section data will be kept for two years, allowing Welltax Limited to have a reasonable amount of time to contact potential customers and employees.

7. How and Where Do We Store Your Data?

• We only keep your personal data for as long as We need to in order to use it as described above in section 6, and/or for as long as We have your permission to keep it.

• Your data will only be stored in the UK.

• Data security is very important to Us, and to protect your data We have taken suitable measures to safeguard and secure data collected through Our Site.

• Steps We take to secure and protect your data include:

• Encrypted Hard Disc Data

• Website Control Panel locked with password

8. Do We Share Your Data?

• Subject to section 8.2, We will not share any of your data with any third parties for any purposes.

• In certain circumstances, We may be legally required to share certain data held by Us, which may include your personal data, for example, where We are involved in legal proceedings, where We are complying with legal obligations, a court order, or a governmental authority.

9. What Happens If Our Business Changes Hands?

• We may, from time to time, expand or reduce Our business and this may involve the sale and/or the transfer of control of all or part of Our business. Any personal data that you have provided will, where it is relevant to any part of Our business that is being transferred, be transferred along with that part and the new owner or newly controlling party will, under the terms of this Privacy Policy, be permitted to use that data only for the same purposes for which it was originally collected by Us.

• In the event that any of your data is to be transferred in such a manner, you will not be contacted in advance and informed of the changes.

10. How Can You Control Your Data?

• In addition to your rights under the GDPR, set out in section 4, when you submit personal data via Our Site, we aim to give you strong controls on Our use of your data for direct marketing purposes (including the ability to opt-out of receiving emails from Us which you may do by unsubscribing using the links provided in Our emails and at the point of providing your details).

• You may also wish to sign up to one or more of the preference services operating in the UK: The Telephone Preference Service (“the TPS”), the Corporate Telephone Preference Service (“the CTPS”), and the Mailing Preference Service (“the MPS”). These may help to prevent you receiving unsolicited marketing. Please note, however, that these services will not prevent you from receiving marketing communications that you have consented to receiving.

11. Your Right to Withhold Information

You may access certain areas of Our Site without providing any data at all. However, to use all features and functions available on Our Site you may be required to submit or allow for the collection of certain data.

12. How Can You Access Your Data?

You have the right to ask for a copy of any of your personal data held by Us (where such data is held). Under the GDPR, no fee is payable and We will provide any and all information in response to your request free of charge. Please contact Us for more details at info@well-tax.com, or using the contact details below in section 13.

13. Contacting Us

If you have any questions about Our Site or this Privacy Policy, please contact Us by email at info@well-tax.com, by telephone on +44 (0) 20 3581 1717, or by post at https://well-tax.com/contact. Please ensure that your query is clear, particularly if it is a request for information about the data We hold about you (as under section 12, above).

14. Changes to Our Privacy Policy

We may change this Privacy Policy from time to time (for example, if the law changes). Any changes will be immediately posted on Our Site and you will be deemed to have accepted the terms of the Privacy Policy on your first use of Our Site following the alterations. We recommend that you check this page regularly to keep up-to-date.

Login
Let us keep you updated with our Newsletter