{"id":4166,"date":"2018-01-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-01-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/?p=4166"},"modified":"2023-09-25T18:56:50","modified_gmt":"2023-09-25T17:56:50","slug":"perche-i-tagli-fiscali-di-trump-potrebbero-far-aumentare-i-mutui-in-italia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/it\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\/","title":{"rendered":"Perch\u00e9 i tagli fiscali di Trump potrebbero far aumentare i mutui in Italia"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cosa c'entra Trump con i mutui in Italia? Sicuramente ha a che fare con l'economia globalizzata. Il\u00a0riforma fiscale<\/a>\u00a0tanto desiderata dal 45\u00b0 presidente degli Stati Uniti - che offre essenzialmente benefici alle aziende statunitensi che rimpatriano i capitali - potrebbe spingere la\u00a0Banca Centrale Europea<\/a>\u00a0di aumentare i tassi prima del previsto. Un aumento dei tassi avrebbe inevitabilmente un impatto anche sulle rate dei mutui a tasso variabile.<\/p>\n

Proviamo a collegare i puntini che vanno dagli Stati Uniti (Trump) all'Europa (BCE) fino all'Italia (mutui). L'effetto pi\u00f9 evidente di un rimpatrio di capitali dagli USA \u00e8 un aumento dei flussi di capitale verso gli Stati Uniti. Questo aumento avrebbe inevitabilmente un impatto sul dollaro (che avrebbe quindi una spinta al rialzo) e sull'inflazione negli Stati Uniti. Se tutto andasse come previsto, la Federal Reserve sarebbe \"costretta\" - per evitare un surriscaldamento dell'economia - ad aumentare i tassi a un ritmo pi\u00f9 rapido del previsto. Anche perch\u00e9 la riforma fiscale dovrebbe spingere il deficit di bilancio statunitense verso nuovi record. Un altro motivo per cui la\u00a0nuovo presidente della Fed Jerome Powell<\/a>\u00a0potrebbe adottare una politica ancora pi\u00f9 restrittiva.<\/p>\n

A quel punto la BCE non poteva restare a guardare. Gi\u00e0 oggi lo spread sul costo del denaro tra USA ed Eurozona \u00e8 pari a 150 punti (mentre lo spread sui titoli di Stato USA-Tedeschi \u00e8 ancora pi\u00f9 ampio e si aggira sui 200 punti). Se la BCE dovesse rinviare ulteriormente il prossimo aumento dei tassi, la fase di decoupling - cio\u00e8 la divergenza delle politiche monetarie tra le due aree - sarebbe difficile da sostenere sui mercati finanziari.<\/p>\n

Per questa serie di ragioni - che tuttavia traggono origine dall'effetto a cascata causato dalla riforma fiscale di Trump - nell'ultimo mese le stime sulla tempistica della prossima stretta della BCE si sono accorciate di 5 mesi.<\/p>\n

Se a dicembre si ipotizzava un aumento nei prossimi 20 mesi (quindi a fine 2019), oggi i futures sugli indici Euribor, ma anche il \"Morgan<\/a>\u00a0Stanley First hike Eurozone\", hanno ridotto i tempi a 15 mesi.<\/p>\n

Il prossimo aumento potrebbe quindi arrivare nella primavera del 2019. Ci\u00f2 significa che i mutui a tasso variabile potrebbero ricominciare a salire per la prima volta dopo dieci anni di pressione al ribasso. Attualmente si stima un aumento di 10 punti base. Certo, non molto: circa 5 euro al mese per un mutuo ventennale di 100 mila euro (il calcolo \u00e8 necessariamente forfettario perch\u00e9 dipende molto dalla durata residua del mutuo). Fino al 2022, i futures sull'Euribor ipotizzano attualmente un aumento complessivo di 100 punti base. Un elemento in pi\u00f9 per la valutazione di chi oggi sta scegliendo quale mutuo accendere o sostituire.<\/p>\n

Ma potrebbe esserci anche un \"effetto Trump\" sui mutui a tasso fisso. Questi non sono legati all'Euribor ma all'Eurirs. Questi indici sintetizzano le aspettative sull'andamento del costo del denaro nel medio-lungo periodo. Nelle ultime settimane sono gi\u00e0 saliti (a differenza dell'Euribor che in realt\u00e0 salir\u00e0 solo quando la BCE alzer\u00e0 i tassi) anticipando la catena di eventi che potrebbe innescare la riforma fiscale americana in Europa.<\/p>\n

Articolo tratto da \"Il Sole 24 ore\"<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What does Trump have to do with mortgages in Italy? It certainly has something to do with the globalized economy. The\u00a0tax reform\u00a0so desired by the 45th president of the USA – which essentially offers benefits to US companies that repatriate capital – could push the\u00a0European Central Bank\u00a0to raise rates earlier than expected. An increase in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general-news"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Trump's tax cuts could increase mortgages in Italy - WellTax<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/it\/perche-i-tagli-fiscali-di-trump-potrebbero-far-aumentare-i-mutui-in-italia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Trump's tax cuts could increase mortgages in Italy - WellTax\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What does Trump have to do with mortgages in Italy? It certainly has something to do with the globalized economy. The\u00a0tax reform\u00a0so desired by the 45th president of the USA – which essentially offers benefits to US companies that repatriate capital – could push the\u00a0European Central Bank\u00a0to raise rates earlier than expected. An increase in […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/it\/perche-i-tagli-fiscali-di-trump-potrebbero-far-aumentare-i-mutui-in-italia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WellTax\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/welltaxlimited\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-01-10T00:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-09-25T17:56:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/preview.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marcello Silvestri\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Scritto da\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marcello Silvestri\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tempo di lettura stimato\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minuti\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Marcello Silvestri\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/bd034ad4413d54a60f75e4aad6ff212b\"},\"headline\":\"Why Trump’s tax cuts could increase mortgages in Italy\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-01-10T00:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-09-25T17:56:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":533,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"General News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"it-IT\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/\",\"name\":\"Why Trump's tax cuts could increase mortgages in Italy - 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