{"id":3970,"date":"2018-02-22T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-02-22T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/the-unexpected-growth-of-the-uk\/"},"modified":"2024-05-28T11:46:36","modified_gmt":"2024-05-28T10:46:36","slug":"la-croissance-inattendue-du-royaume-uni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/fr\/the-unexpected-growth-of-the-uk\/","title":{"rendered":"La croissance inattendue du Royaume-Uni"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Les estimations de croissance de l'\u00e9conomie britannique ont \u00e9t\u00e9 continuellement revues \u00e0 la baisse au cours des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Le Brexit a jou\u00e9 le r\u00f4le principal dans cet environnement \u00e9conomiquement d\u00e9primant, entra\u00eenant l'incertitude et l'instabilit\u00e9 au Royaume-Uni. Ce sont les accords qui devront \u00eatre conclus avec l'Union europ\u00e9enne qui ont suscit\u00e9 le plus d'inqui\u00e9tudes.<\/p>\n<p>Un sc\u00e9nario catastrophe a \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9dit par le site exclusif BuzzFeedNews, qui a eu acc\u00e8s \u00e0 des documents confidentiels sur le Brexit, selon lequel les r\u00e9sultats d'une sortie de l'Europe seront n\u00e9gatifs et affecteront tous les secteurs.<\/p>\n<p>Le document \u00e9value les trois sc\u00e9narios les plus plausibles concernant les relations futures entre le Royaume-Uni et l'UE. Avec un accord de libre-\u00e9change, comme celui \u00e9voqu\u00e9 par May dans son discours de Florence, la croissance britannique serait inf\u00e9rieure de 5% au cours des 15 prochaines ann\u00e9es par rapport aux pr\u00e9visions actuelles. En cas d'\u00e9chec de l'accord sur le Brexit, le Royaume-Uni \u00e9tant contraint de se conformer aux r\u00e8gles de l'Organisation mondiale du commerce, la croissance britannique serait inf\u00e9rieure de 8% sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode. Si le Royaume-Uni conservait l'acc\u00e8s au march\u00e9 int\u00e9rieur de l'UE, \u00e0 long terme, la croissance serait toujours inf\u00e9rieure de 2% \u00e0 celle d'une adh\u00e9sion pleine et enti\u00e8re \u00e0 l'UE. Ces calculs ne tiennent pas compte des co\u00fbts \u00e0 court terme r\u00e9sultant de la sortie de l'Union europ\u00e9enne.<\/p>\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 les pr\u00e9visions ci-dessus, malgr\u00e9 le Brexit et toute adversit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique, la Grande-Bretagne continue de cro\u00eetre.<\/p>\n<p>Selon le nouveau rapport de l'Institut national de recherche \u00e9conomique et sociale, la croissance du PIB au Royaume-Uni sera plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la reprise synchronis\u00e9e des \u00e9conomies mondiales et \u00e0 la faiblesse de la livre.<\/p>\n<p>Comme l'explique Jagjit Chadha, directeur de Niesr : \"Ces deux facteurs ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 r\u00e9\u00e9quilibrer l'\u00e9conomie britannique, qui d\u00e9pend d\u00e9sormais moins de la demande int\u00e9rieure, s'oriente davantage vers le commerce et continuera \u00e0 le faire au cours des deux prochaines ann\u00e9es. La contribution que la reprise mondiale a apport\u00e9e \u00e0 la Grande-Bretagne a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9cisive. En effet, le manque de consommation d\u00fb \u00e0 l'incertitude li\u00e9e au Brexit et la baisse du revenu disponible ont \u00e9t\u00e9 plus que compens\u00e9s par la relance du commerce\".<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\"Juste au moment o\u00f9 nous avons d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de changer de cap avec le Brexit, le reste du monde nous a donn\u00e9 un coup de main - dit Chadha-. La croissance de l'\u00e9conomie britannique l'ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re et cette ann\u00e9e a \u00e9t\u00e9 soutenue par une croissance mondiale plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu - en 2018, elle atteindra probablement 4 %\".<\/p>\n<p>Le NIESR pr\u00e9voit maintenant que le PIB britannique augmentera de pr\u00e8s de 2% en 2018 et 2019. Sans la reprise de l'\u00e9conomie mondiale, qui d\u00e9passe les pr\u00e9visions, la croissance britannique de l'ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 de 1,2% au lieu de 1,8%. L'inflation n'est pas un probl\u00e8me car elle a atteint un pic de 3% \u00e0 la fin de 2017 et continuera \u00e0 diminuer cette ann\u00e9e jusqu'\u00e0 ce qu'elle atteigne le taux convenu de 2% en 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Ces pr\u00e9visions optimistes sur l'\u00e9conomie britannique sont \u00e9galement dues \u00e0 l'accord entre le gouvernement de Theresa May et l'Union europ\u00e9enne en d\u00e9cembre dernier, qui a d\u00e9bloqu\u00e9 les n\u00e9gociations sur le Brexit et \"r\u00e9duit l'incertitude qui pesait sur les entreprises en freinant les investissements\", selon Chadha.<\/p>\n<p>Le NIESR est \u00e9galement optimiste quant \u00e0 l'issue finale des n\u00e9gociations entre Londres et Bruxelles, malgr\u00e9 les tensions de ces derniers jours et la d\u00e9cision de la Premi\u00e8re ministre Theresa May d'apaiser les partisans du Brexit au sein de son parti en d\u00e9clarant que la Grande-Bretagne ne restera pas dans l'union douani\u00e8re et imposera des restrictions aux citoyens de l'UE apr\u00e8s 2019.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/fr\/contact\/\">Contactez nous<\/a> pour plus d'informations<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/fr\/a-propos-de-nous\/\">Silvano Ghigliani<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span><em style=\"box-sizing: inherit;\">Tags : brexit news, eu referendum, brexit latest, brexit latest news, brexit vote results, effects of Brexit, brexit referendum date, eu referendum date, brexit news today, referendum results, brexit meaning, what is Brexit, brexit immigration, brexit vote date, eu referendum results, uk referendum, eu brexit news, brexitnews, brexit impact, what does brexit mean, brexit news uk, brexit uk, brexit pour et contre, plan de brexit, r\u00e9sultats du brexit, vote leave, dernier sondage brexit, cons\u00e9quences du brexit, r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum brexit, d\u00e9finition du brexit, quitter l'ue, uk eu, brexit eu, vote brexit, sondage brexit, mise \u00e0 jour brexit, le uk quittera-t-il l'ue, ref eu, derni\u00e8res nouvelles sur le brexit, r\u00e9sultats du r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum europ\u00e9en, arguments pour le brexit, \u00e0 propos du brexit, que signifie le brexit pour l'ue, voter remain<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The growth estimates of the British economy have been continuously revised downwards over the past few years. Brexit played the leading role in this economically depressing environment, leading to uncertainty and instability among the UK. To arouse the major concerns, it was the agreements that will have to be taken with the European Union. A [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brexit-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The unexpected growth of the UK - WellTax<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/fr\/la-croissance-inattendue-du-royaume-uni\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The unexpected growth of the UK - WellTax\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The growth estimates of the British economy have been continuously revised downwards over the past few years. Brexit played the leading role in this economically depressing environment, leading to uncertainty and instability among the UK. To arouse the major concerns, it was the agreements that will have to be taken with the European Union. 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