{"id":4166,"date":"2018-01-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-01-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/?p=4166"},"modified":"2023-09-25T18:56:50","modified_gmt":"2023-09-25T17:56:50","slug":"por-que-los-recortes-fiscales-de-trumps-podrian-aumentar-las-hipotecas-en-italia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/es\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\/","title":{"rendered":"Por qu\u00e9 la bajada de impuestos de Trump podr\u00eda aumentar las hipotecas en Italia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00bfQu\u00e9 tiene que ver Trump con las hipotecas en Italia? Desde luego tiene que ver con la econom\u00eda globalizada. En\u00a0<a title=\"\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ilsole24ore.com\/art\/mondo\/2017-12-11\/lettera-5-grandi-ue-tesoro-usa-riforma-fiscale-trump-contro- regole-internazionali-165846.shtml?uuid=AEbq3YQD\">reforma fiscal<\/a>\u00a0tan deseada por el 45\u00ba presidente de EE.UU. -que esencialmente ofrece beneficios a las empresas estadounidenses que repatr\u00eden capitales- podr\u00eda impulsar la\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/ arguments.ilsole24ore.com\/bce.html\">Banco Central Europeo<\/a>\u00a0subir los tipos antes de lo previsto. Una subida de tipos repercutir\u00eda inevitablemente tambi\u00e9n en las cuotas de las hipotecas a tipo variable.<\/p>\n<p>Intentemos conectar los puntos que van desde EEUU (Trump) a Europa (BCE) hasta Italia (hipotecas). El efecto m\u00e1s evidente de una repatriaci\u00f3n de capitales desde EEUU es un aumento de los flujos de capitales hacia EEUU. Este aumento repercutir\u00eda inevitablemente en el d\u00f3lar (que por tanto tendr\u00eda un impulso al alza) y en la inflaci\u00f3n en EEUU. Si todo saliera seg\u00fan lo previsto, la Reserva Federal se ver\u00eda \"obligada\" -para evitar el recalentamiento de la econom\u00eda- a subir los tipos a un ritmo m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido de lo esperado. Tambi\u00e9n porque la reforma fiscal deber\u00eda empujar el d\u00e9ficit presupuestario estadounidense hacia nuevos r\u00e9cords. Otra raz\u00f3n por la que la\u00a0<a title=\"\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ilsole24ore.com\/art\/mondo\/2017-12-11\/usa-il-rialzo-tassi-riunione-fed-strattata-cinque- graphic-131108.shtml?uuid=AEQwFMQD\">nuevo presidente de la Fed, Jerome Powell<\/a>\u00a0podr\u00eda adoptar una pol\u00edtica a\u00fan m\u00e1s restrictiva.<\/p>\n<p>En ese momento, el BCE no pod\u00eda quedarse de brazos cruzados. Ya hoy, el diferencial del coste del dinero entre EE.UU. y la eurozona es igual a 150 puntos (mientras que el diferencial de la deuda p\u00fablica estadounidense-alemana es a\u00fan mayor y ronda los 200 puntos). Si el BCE aplazara a\u00fan m\u00e1s la pr\u00f3xima subida de tipos, la fase de desacoplamiento -es decir, la divergencia de las pol\u00edticas monetarias entre las dos zonas- ser\u00eda dif\u00edcilmente sostenible en los mercados financieros.<\/p>\n<p>Por esta serie de razones -que sin embargo tiene su origen en el efecto cascada provocado por la reforma fiscal de Trump- en el \u00faltimo mes las estimaciones sobre el calendario del pr\u00f3ximo endurecimiento del BCE se han acortado en 5 meses.<\/p>\n<p>Si en diciembre se hipotetizaba una subida en los pr\u00f3ximos 20 meses (por tanto a finales de 2019), hoy los futuros sobre los \u00edndices Euribor, pero tambi\u00e9n el \"<a href=\"http:\/\/argomenti.ilsole24ore .com\/morgan.html\">Morgan<\/a>\u00a0Stanley First hike Eurozone\", redujeron el plazo a 15 meses.<\/p>\n<p>La pr\u00f3xima subida podr\u00eda llegar, por tanto, en la primavera de 2019. Esto significa que las hipotecas a tipo variable podr\u00edan empezar a subir de nuevo por primera vez tras diez a\u00f1os de presi\u00f3n a la baja. Actualmente se estima un aumento de 10 puntos b\u00e1sicos. Por supuesto, no mucho: unos 5 euros al mes para una hipoteca a 20 a\u00f1os de 100 mil euros (el c\u00e1lculo es necesariamente a tanto alzado porque depende mucho de la duraci\u00f3n residual de la hipoteca). Hasta 2022, los futuros del Euribor suponen actualmente un aumento global de 100 puntos b\u00e1sicos. Un elemento adicional para la evaluaci\u00f3n de quienes hoy eligen qu\u00e9 hipoteca contratar o sustituir.<\/p>\n<p>Pero tambi\u00e9n podr\u00eda haber un \"efecto Trump\" en las hipotecas a tipo fijo. Estas no est\u00e1n vinculadas al Euribor, sino al Eurirs. Estos \u00edndices resumen las expectativas sobre la evoluci\u00f3n del coste del dinero a medio y largo plazo. En las \u00faltimas semanas ya han subido (a diferencia del Euribor, que en realidad s\u00f3lo subir\u00e1 cuando el BCE suba los tipos) anticipando la cadena de acontecimientos que podr\u00eda desencadenar la reforma fiscal de EEUU en Europa.<\/p>\n<p>Art\u00edculo de \"Il Sole 24 ore\"<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What does Trump have to do with mortgages in Italy? It certainly has something to do with the globalized economy. The\u00a0tax reform\u00a0so desired by the 45th president of the USA &#8211; which essentially offers benefits to US companies that repatriate capital &#8211; could push the\u00a0European Central Bank\u00a0to raise rates earlier than expected. An increase in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Trump&#039;s tax cuts could increase mortgages in Italy - WellTax<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/es\/por-que-los-recortes-fiscales-de-trumps-podrian-aumentar-las-hipotecas-en-italia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Trump&#039;s tax cuts could increase mortgages in Italy - WellTax\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What does Trump have to do with mortgages in Italy? It certainly has something to do with the globalized economy. The\u00a0tax reform\u00a0so desired by the 45th president of the USA &#8211; which essentially offers benefits to US companies that repatriate capital &#8211; could push the\u00a0European Central Bank\u00a0to raise rates earlier than expected. An increase in [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/es\/por-que-los-recortes-fiscales-de-trumps-podrian-aumentar-las-hipotecas-en-italia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WellTax\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/welltaxlimited\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-01-10T00:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-09-25T17:56:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/well-tax.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/preview.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marcello Silvestri\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marcello Silvestri\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Marcello Silvestri\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/bd034ad4413d54a60f75e4aad6ff212b\"},\"headline\":\"Why Trump&#8217;s tax cuts could increase mortgages in Italy\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-01-10T00:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-09-25T17:56:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":533,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"General News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/well-tax.com\\\/why-trumps-tax-cuts-could-increase-mortgages-in-italy\\\/\",\"name\":\"Why Trump's tax cuts could increase mortgages in Italy - 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